“Tempora mutantur et nos in illis”. Times change and we with them. Was reminded of this Latin proverb when doing the follow-up on my blog from 2022 on the discovery of oil and gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean. In 2018/19, it led to high tensions between Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt on the one hand and Turkey & Libya on the other hand. Both Turkey and Greece & Cyprus aggressively claimed the lion share of these fields. Greenpeace and other environmental NGOs were also in the fight albeit for different reasons. They warned of the imminent collapse of the eastern Mediterranean’s unique fauna and flora.
The planned EastMed Poseidon Pipeline crosses an Area claimed by Turkey and Greece
Fast forward to summer 2024: A Greek-American consortium led by ExxonMobil obtained clearance from the Greek Government for the second phase of exploration south-west of Crete. The first phase ended in October 2024 with positive results. The second phase is planned for 2025 - 2027 when a dicision on commercial exploitation is to be taken. This time, there was almost no media attention. The war between Russia and the Ukraine made abundantly clear how much Europe depends on natural gas. Without gas, there will be electricity black-outs, factory closures and many homes turning cold. Before the war, Russia exported 155 bn cubic meters to the European Union, about 45% of total consumption.
Young People in Cyprus protesting against the EastMed-Poseidon Pipeline in 2021
The origin of the Mediterranean’s gas and oil fields dates back to the time of the Tethys Sea which separated Europe from Africa 200 million years ago. The Tethys sea was shallow with rich plant life on its shores. Over millions of years, as sea levels rose & dropped, sediments covered the remains of these plants. Some of the sediments were sand which morphed into porous sandstone. Some were made from layers of dead plankton with their miniscule calcium shells. They would form the limestone mountains we know today as Alps, Apennine or the mountains in Greece, Anatolia and Croatia. As the sediments accumulated, pressure and temperature increased. The long carbon-hydrogen molecules cracked. Some of this trapped organic material became coal, some oil and some gas. Most of this gas evaporated but a substantial volume got trapped in the porous sedimentary rocks.
Location of already exploited Gas Field in the Eastern Mediterranean
The first oil and gas fields were discovered in the 1980s but it took time to develop the necessary technology for deep sea drilling. This part of the Mediterranean is up to 3’000 meters deep. The armed conflicts in the region were another obstacle. But eventually everyone realized the value of these fossil fuelss and how they could contribute to the economic development. Unfortunately, these discoveries also triggered the dispute I described in my initial paragraph and blog F-137. Today though, Europe's as well as Turkey's fiery rhetoric calmed down. Soon i guess, there will be drillings in the many undisputed fields of Greece and Turkey. Neither country can absorb the expected gas volumes thus they look to Europe as a market.
Greek Concession Areas as of 2024
It is where the project of the EastMed-Poseidon pipeline kicks in. It will link the gas fields of Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and Greece to Italy from where the gas will be distributed further. The new pipe is an engineering challenge though. With 2’110 km in length and up to 3’000 m in depth, nothing alike has ever been built. The gas flows at speeds of 120km/h which results in 17 hours transfer time. Deep sea pump stations have to maintain the flow at regular intervals. I wonder how engineers are going to install gas pumps in 3’000 meters depth? I guess their achievements will fill many future engineering textbooks.
Exploration Drilling South-West of the Greek Island of Crete
The planned pipeline had its ups and down in the past. Whilst quickly adopted by the EU, the Biden Administration withdrew its support in January 2022. But the consortium has not given up. In 2024 it launched a review of the pipeline's economic viability. The project sponsors are confident that they will find investors. With costs of USD 6 bn, the bar is high though. The famous Nordstream 2 pipline - with 800 km half as long and less deep - cost USD 10 bn, or USD 17bn including the connecting pipes at either end. Nordstream 2 carries up to 55 bn cubic meters of gas per year and is 3.5 times bigger than the planned EastMed Poseidon project. All said, the cost of the two projects are comparable. There is a good chance that the pipeline will be built even when only contributing 5% to Europe's total gas consumption. Diversified energy supply has its own value.
The Nordstream 2 Pipeline in the Baltic Sea
When looking at the proposed route for the EastMed Poseidon pipeline, I immediately thought of Apostle Paul's journey to Rome. The itinerary is almost identical. 2'000 years ago Saint Paul brought the message to the imperial capital that "God became man but no man can become God". He changed the course of history. That all humans are equal before God laid the base for our western civilisation. It led to all men being equal. To our property rights. To the rule of law. And eventually to the science and industrial revolution which gave us gas drilling towers in deep waters. Apostle Paul would be amazed if he saw the unimaginable consequences of his preaching. Am glad he travelled to Rome.
Saint Paul writing his Epistles, Valentine de Boulogne, Rome 1620
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