At a time when Europe needs to replace Russia as main gas supplier it is worth looking at alternatives in our vicinity. During our trip this summer, we will be cruising above some of the yet to be explored underwater gas fields between Turkey and Greece.
Gas Off-Shore Rig in the Eastern Mediterranean
About 150 million years ago, the continents of Africa, India and Australia started to move north thereby closing the Tethys Sea. This body of salt water existed from around 650 million years to 30 million years ago when the Mediterranean was enclosed between the moving African and the stable European plate.
The warm and shallow Tethys Sea during the Late Jurassic, about 150 million years ago
The Tethys Sea was tropical, relatively shallow and full of plant and animal life. All the limestone sediments we find today in the Alps, the Apennine, the Balkan or Anatolian mountains were deposited during its existence. Limestone sediments are nothing else than tightly packed plankton skeletons. Have a look at the limestone in your kitchen or bath with a magnifying glass and you will see it.
The even warmer but now deeper Tethys Sea, shortly before enclosing the Mediterranean
The dead animal shells sinking to the sea floor contained organic matter, which transforms into gas, oil or coal under pressure and heat. The giant coal fields of Australia are a legacy of the Tethys Sea, as are the gas and oil fields we are going to talk about in this blog. Since gas is highly fluid, it seeps into porous sand stone formations where it stays trapped until found. Sometimes it comes with oil, sometimes just gas. Given its pressure, it flows once tapped.
Depth of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin in Meters - it is rather deep
Geologists always suspected that there would be gas and oil below the Mediterranean. The folded lime and sandstone above ground and the existence of hydrocarbons in Algeria and Libya gave it away. But the Mediterranean was for a long time too deep to explore. It took the off-shore drilling in the relatively shallow North Sea and the deep-sea drilling of Petrobras off Brazil's Atlantic coast to develop the necessary technology. By the end of the 20th century, the technology was ready. The first fields were found in Israel and Egypt.
Oil and Gas Fields off the coasts of Egypt and Israel as of 2019
Experts estimate today that there could be up to 50 billion barrels of oil and 500 trillion of cubic feet of gas (= 14.3 trillion cubic meters). To put this into perspective: Germany consumes 85bn cubic meters gas per year, the entire EU 470bn . The Mediterranean thus holds about 170 years of German or 31 years of EU consumption respectively. The size of these gas fields is significant. It is equivalent to the US reserves of natural gas (including fracking). The 500 TCF (trillion cubic feet) is probably a conservative number. The major discoveries north of the Nile Delta and west of the Levantine coast have now been estimated at 345 TCF alone, way more than Israel and Egypt can consume domestically. Both countries will become net gas exporters.
Map with Greece's EEZ claim and the planned EastMed Pipeline from Israel to Greece
In 2019, Cyprus, Egypt, France, Israel, Italy and Jordan founded the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) to increase gas exports from the Middle East. Sadly, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey are missing. The EMGF is working on several gas pipeline projects to connect the EU with the region.
Turkey has rather different Ideas about the size of its EEZ so does Northern Cyprus\
But instead of fostering cooperation and economic development, the gas discoveries have increased regional tensions. Turkey which has no natural gas demands a far bigger share and made it very clear that it will unilaterally expand its Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) at the expense of Greece and Cyprus. The rhetoric between Greece and Turkey has reached levels not seen since the Cyprus crisis of 1974. Turkey even threatened to cut the planned pipeline between Israel and the EU with military means. In November 2019, Turkey signed a treaty with the Tripoli based Libyan government which would create a joint EEZ from Turkey to Libya. In return, Turkey would support the Libyan government in Tripoli with weapons and advisors to conquer Benghazi back. The agreement was widely condemned by EU, the US and other Mediterranean countries and annulled by a Libyan court in January 2021. But Turkey still insists on its validity.
Greek Exploration Rig in the Ionian Sea - we won't see one in the Aegean though
The increased tensions significantly slowed down the exploration of new fields. Who would invest billions if all may end up in smoke and flames? But not all is that negative. Israel and Egypt continued their exploration. Egypt alone now has 2.2 tr cubic meter of proven gas reserves, Israel about 180 bn cubic meters. Israel approved in summer 2020 the building of an underwater pipeline that would link its gas fields to the EU. The pipeline could carry around 10 bn cubic meters of gas to Europe. A lot in absolute terms but still little compared to the EU’s annual consumption of 470 bn. Whether the pipeline will be built is up in the air. The US government withdrew its support in Jan 2022 year because it did not want to "anger" Putin and Erdogan. I guess US position is re-evaluated as I write this blog.
This Proposal for a Compromise has probably little Chance - but it could at least be the Start of some serious Negotiation between the two Turkey and Greece
Maybe it is time that the two NATO countries Greece and Turkey focus on their energy security rather than on the size of their cake. Turkey’s position is understandable though having no natural gas at all. Russian gas imports account for more than 40%. But now EU and Turkey have the same strategic goal. With the war in the Ukraine raging, the EU decided to drastically reduce its energy dependence from Russia and cut it to zero well before 2030.
Exploration Drilling started this March in the Ionian Sea - the Greek Government hopes that Production could start by 2027 or 2028
Not surprisingly, Greece announced to resume its exploratory drilling in the Ionian Sea where there are no territorial disputes. Read somewhere that potential gas reserves amount to around 6 TCF, about the same as in Israel. But could not corroborate the number.
In any case, there will be no drilling along our summer route. Both Greece and Turkey agreed to calm down and suspend drilling in contested areas. I hope the war in Russia brings them to reason. Conflicts of interest can be solved by joint ventures. Getting a good share of something is better than getting nothing from a perfect project that rots on a shelf.